Madness Thoughts and Opinions

It's that time of year. The best three weeks any basketball fan can ask for. The rankings are irrelevant (as always?). Big conference or small, everyone is on a level playing field. Is there anything more American than filling out an NCAA tournament bracket? Just like the players who settle it on the court, anyone can win a bracket pool. That's the beauty of it. My Asian roommate will pick based on who has the hottest cheerleaders (seriously) and my mom still thinks that the higher numbered seed is actually the better team (ok not really, but she just loves upsets). Both have beaten me in recent years.

Did you notice what i did? "Bracket" is always singular. Please do not be that person who claims to have correctly picked that upset "in one of my bracketS." It really gets annoying. Stick to you guns and have some integrity. I am not going to try and act like I know what going to happen in this tournament. I will give you 7 thoughts, predictions, stats that you should keep in mind before sending your bracket in. At the end of the post I will include link to a couple of guys who really know the brackets.

7 Thoughts to Ponder

1) The wild, wild west bracket will implode at some point. I just don't know who will lose and when. It is a crap shoot. This region will probably look similar to the west last year, who had a 4 seed play a 7 to get to the final four. Lets look at the top seeds and problems I have with them.

• Gonzaga - One of the weakest ones in recent memory, yet somehow underrated at the same time. 
• Ohio State - They are the smartest pick, but can you continue to rely on offense from Craft, Thompson and Ross? I really don't think so. 
• New Mexico - Strong resume but the analytics don't back it up. They struggle to score as well and Alford has not had the best tournament record.
• Kansas State - Coached by Bruce Webber. Yeah, 
  THIS GUY. Nuff said. 
• Wisconsin - A popular pick for the Elite 8. How quickly we forget Wisco can beat anybody and also lose to ANYBODY (Purdue at home). Their margin for error is really low. In a tournament, that isn't ideal. 
• Arizona- No true point guard. They have size but are really young down low. Can't trust em. 

2) VCU is a really trendy pick at the moment. Great coach, fun team to watch, but very flawed. If the rams can't force turnovers, the become an average defense. In fact, the haven't beaten a team in the top 80 in turnover % all season! Michigan is ranked #1 in the nation in turnover %, while South Dakota State is ranked 13th. Not surprisingly both are lead by fantastic point guards.

3) Louisville should be the favorite, but the fact that everyone is picking them to win it all doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Two weeks ago we were wondering if they had a shot at a 1 seed. They are hot, but apparently the Big East Tournament win put them over the top. Who did they beat exactly? A 7 seed in Notre dame and a 5 seed Syracuse who had lost 4 out of 5 going into the Big East tournament. The Cardinals are more susceptible than you think.

4) St. Louis has the look of a team who is ready to go far. Veteran guard play, big guys who stretch the floor and the emotional backing of Rick Majerus. The latter can't be underestimated after we saw the Colts and Ravens have improbable runs under similar circumstances. I think they can survive the Louisville pressure and will be in position to steal the game from the Cardinals.

5) Things going against the Miami Hurricanes:

• Only one team has ever won a NCAA championship without a McDonald's All American (Maryland '02). Indicating you need NBA talent to win it all.
• Teams not ranked in the top 25 in the pre-season have a historically poor record when given a high seed. Again indicating a lack of overall talent.
• Really old team though, some would say very experienced right? Their entire roster has played a total of 0 games in the NCAA tournament. Not saying they can't do it, just something to think about.

6) Marquette has been put in a tough pod (Butler, Bucknell and Davidson) and are a relatively over seeded 3. They also are trying to overcome having the worst 3 point % in the tournament, 30%.Historically, teams have found it tough when they shoot poorly from 3. Not many have made it to the sweet sixteen. 

7) Florida is the classic Eye test vs. Advanced stats team this year. They have lost 6 close games this year and I would tell you that is more unlucky than anything. They also are top 5 in offensive and defensive efficiency, the only team in the nation that can boast both. Lastly they are in a region with a relatively weak 1 and 2 seed. We know Billy Donovan can coach as well. Smells like a final four run for the Gators.

Actual Experts

Here are some links and a table to guide you through your tournament pool. This Basketball Predictions Blog has fantastic in depth write ups previewing each region. It is a little heavy on the anlaytical side, but really informative. Bracket Science also has any kind of article you could ever want to know about. Who fits the mold of cinderellas and who is most likey to get upset etc. Lastly please use the table below to see who has played well since January 1st (courtesy of @RealGM). Good luck and enjoy the rest of the madness.