Derrick Rose: The Modern Day Lion King

After the Bulls inspired performance last night, it's hard not to wonder about the mental state of Chicago's own, Derrick Rose. Almost everyone wants him to come back and give this beaten up bulls team new life. I am of the thinking that he probably won't and shouldn't come back this season. Can we really throw him out there into a playoff series and expect greatness? The expectations would be ultra high, but that is nothing new for Derrick. He has accepted that since day one as a bull. He has openly talked about the pressure of being in Jordan's shadow and Chicago needing someone to propel them out of it. It still remains impossible to tell if Derrick is even contemplating a comeback at this point. I am not going to try and speculate what exactly he is thinking, but I will paint a picture which i believe vividly portrays the purgatory that Rose is sitting in right now.

Being a 90's baby, I grew up on Disney movies. Now while I mostly prefer DCOM (Disney Channel Original Movies for those noobs out there), I did watch my fair share of them that were actually in theaters. So lets get a feel for the plot of this documentary the Bulls are currently filming: We have a star who was on the rise and ready to take his place at the top. Then he had a traumatic event happen in his life and has fallen into a funk, leaving his own family behind. Meanwhile, someone has taken his throne and will continue to govern (much to the malign of everyone else), until Derrick returns. This ringing any bells? That's right, Derrick Rose is Jonathan Taylor Thomas, aka Simba from the Lion King.

Now some might think is a stretch, but I have a solid cast who fits the characters to a tee:

• Simba: Derrick Rose - This one seems pretty obvious. Derrick's mental state is currently in limbo. Physically he is ready to come back to the heard, but is not mentally prepared to face that yet. Meanwhile, his team is struggling without his leadership. He is also getting some interesting advice from his new closest friends.

• Timon and Pumba: BJ Armstrong (agent) and Reggie Rose (brother) - Don't get me wrong, I am one of the biggest fans of of Hakuna Matata. The video is an absolute classic and the message is something I love to live by. While Derrick doesn't exactly have no worries, the advice he is receiving from Reggie and BJ are essentially stopping him from progressing. Thus abandoning his team in a time of need.

• Scar: Lebron James - One of Disney's most hated antagonists and an NBA players almost every fan would love to see lose. There is seemingly no stop to Lebron/Scar's reign unless the rightful King returns to battle. Surely Lebron didn't kill anyone on his way to the top like Scar though right? I believe comparisons can be made to Lebron's exit from Cleveland and the
  scene where Scar kills Mufasa. Scar/Lebron essentially leaving Mufasa/Cleveland hanging by a thread and taunting him just before he lets them go.

• Rafiki: Nate Robinson - Rafiki was always a little off the wall and Nate Rob definitely fits that bill. Hell, the guy is the most enthusiastic bench cheerleader ever. I also believe somewhere inside Nate there is a little ninja. Both the attributes are seen when Rafiki is battling the helpless hyenas. So much emotion and some skillz to boot.

• Hyena (Whoopi Golderg): Chris Bosh - While Bosh most resembles a raptor, I lost respect for him in the Heat's Harlem Shake video. Mario Chalmers aptly dressed up as Mario, while Bosh did not follow suit and dress as Yoshi. Thus, he needs a new animal if he doesn't want to embrace a ridiculously cool dinosaur. I don't care what he actually sounds like, he will always have a high pitched voice and cackle for a laugh to me. Also the dreads Bosh use to rock in Toronto were extremely similar to the mop Whoopi has on her head.

• Zazu: Carlos Boozer - Could it really be anyone else? Someone had to be the annoying bird and Booz fits the character well when he yells ridiculous phrases on court.

• Nala: ???? - The part of Nala is a mystery to me. Who actually tells Derrick that he needs to come back, but he doesn't listen? The fans maybe? I can't do that to Nala. I hold her in very high regard. For example, I contend that she would be the hottest Disney princess if she was in human form.

• Mufasa: Joakim Noah - This was the toughest character to cast. On another day I might say Mufasa has to be Michael Jordan. The greatest leader of his time, Rose/Simba living in his shadow and trying to overcome it. Noah does have a main of hair that rivals Mufasa's though, he just chooses to keep it in a stringy bun. More importantly, Noah's performance on Monday night could be the sign Derrick is looking for. Simba/Rose was staring into the stars, looking for inspiration, when Mufasa provides Simba with exactly the right advice for Rose. Simba asks, "How can I go back? I am not who I used to be", Mufasa calmly answers "Remember who you are, the one true king."

BOOM! That settles it. Rose will come back, defeat Lebron and get Chicago back to the promise land. That would be one hell of a season for the Bulls, Hollywood couldn't even make that stuff up... oh wait. Now I have at least successfully distracted you from wondering what Rose will actually do. Hopefully you enjoyed the long winded analogy and got to relive some of your childhood.

Keith "F@!&ing" Smart: A One Sided Rivalry

Indiana vs. Syracuse. Two programs with storied pasts, who have met in a memorable tournament game once before. Back in 1987 a nerdy version of Jim Boeheim and a skinny Derrick Coleman were paired against a slim Robert Montgomery Knight and his Indiana Hoosiers. Keith Smart, a juco transfer, will forever live in Hoosier lore after hitting a mid range J to win the National Championship game.  As I found out this week, Syracuse fans still have a bad taste in their mouth and had some choice words for the Indiana great: 

• "I was only 7, but even I know that Keith Smart is an asshole."
• "To me, that's the pain of Keith Smart's shot. He didn't just end Syracuse's national title hopes in 1987. He single-handidly changed the course of the entire program. And while we've done quite well for ourselves since, there's always that nagging feeling that we could have been that much better. And it's 100% Keith Smart's fault we're not."

• The 1987 final's last play -- a fluke, mind you -- somehow fueled a narrative for Syracuse and Jim Boeheim as choke artists, one which the media still holds on to dearly despite the 2003 title. It created a permanent animosity for Indiana amongst most SU fans (despite how few times we play the Hoosiers).And most of all, it made Keith "F@!&ing" Smart (yes, that is his actual middle name) arguably the most hated figure in Syracuse sports lore.  As a Syracuse fan, I believed it to be my duty to let him know I'd never forget that play. I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way. 

These are just some of the the quotes I found from different Syracuse blogs. You would think after reading these quotes this match up would be some sort of rivalry. How many times have these teams played since? 3, 3 times in 26 years, 4 total. A lot of hate for an Indiana prgram that doesn't associate much with Cuse other than a 2-3 zone and Melo!

I recently watched the 1987 championship game. A couple things really stood out. How much closer the game was played to the basket in 1987 even though the 3 point line was in place. Syracuse didn't exclusively play 2-3 zone. They box and oned Alford for a good amount of time (probably because he hit 7 threes that game). Syracuse didn't like to hit game clinching free throws then and still doesn't now. Lastly, the composure of the Hoosiers on the last play. No one looked panicked at all, almost so much so that I started panicking for for them. Here is a clip of the last possession. Also notice how high Keith Smart jumps over Howard Triche (YES Brandon Triche's dad was on the court to lose that game).

GAME PREVIEW

Enough of the past, lets focus on the game at hand. The most intriguing match up has to be Indiana's efficient offense versus Syracuse's program defining 2-3 zone. All the same zone offense principles apply here. You want to move the ball quickly, preferably in the middle first to open up the wings. You have to make some outside shots. Lastly, crash the glass because Cuse has the ability to give up offensive rebound in bunches. What makes this zone different is its flexibility. The two guards up top normally sit up above the three point line on the same parallel as the elbows. Essentially pinching the top of the offense while the two wings on the bottom of the 2-3 sit higher up than normal. Syracuse does a really good job of forcing big men into passes the aren't comfortable making and thrive off turnovers.

The most consistent soft spots seem to be at either elbow or in the short corners. Many other teams' zone offense like to exploit the short corner and Cuse is normally happy to give it up. That is where they tend to pinch their zone together and shut down passing lanes. Then big men try to force a pass and Cuse is running the other way with the ball. Louisville did an exceptional job of attacking the elbows in the second half of the Big East championship game.

If you watch these possessions from 51 seconds on,  you can see how Louisville lined up both big guys at the mid post, a set normally called “horns”. Essentially having the point guard occupy both defenders up top, feeding the big men, and playing 4 on 3 from the free throw line down. This eventually opened up the base line for the Kevin Ware alley oop at 1:37 on the video. They made it look really easy. Both Watford and Zeller are skilled enough to make decisions with the ball and I hope Tom Crean can look at this tape and throw some “horns” looks into his zone offense.

The Syracuse offense thrives off of turnovers where it can showcase it's elite athletic ability. So Indiana's best defense will ultimately start on offense. Don't turn the ball over and make Cuse work for its buckets. It will also be interesting to see how IU matches up with Syracuse on defense. The most effective line up Cuse has is probably MCW (6-6), Brandon Triche (6-4), James Southerland (6-8), CJ Fair (6-8) and Baye Keita (6-10). That's tall for an NBA lineup, let alone a college roster. We could see a lot of Will Sheehey just to match up physically. The second key for IU on defense is rebounding. Cuse isn't the smoothest in the half court, in fact if Southerland is not hitting threes it looks borderline ugly. The Hoosiers can not give up second chance points.

I see this game being close and coming down to final 4 minutes after the last TV time out. IU will win if they limit their turnovers and really clamp down on the defensive glass. I think with enough quality possessions they will eventually break down the Syracuse zone, no bias of course. I'll be at the game tomorrow in Washington DC, cheering on the Hoosiers from the nosebleed sections. Hopefully the presence of Keith F@!&ing Smart can lead IU to victory.

Madness Thoughts and Opinions

It's that time of year. The best three weeks any basketball fan can ask for. The rankings are irrelevant (as always?). Big conference or small, everyone is on a level playing field. Is there anything more American than filling out an NCAA tournament bracket? Just like the players who settle it on the court, anyone can win a bracket pool. That's the beauty of it. My Asian roommate will pick based on who has the hottest cheerleaders (seriously) and my mom still thinks that the higher numbered seed is actually the better team (ok not really, but she just loves upsets). Both have beaten me in recent years.

Did you notice what i did? "Bracket" is always singular. Please do not be that person who claims to have correctly picked that upset "in one of my bracketS." It really gets annoying. Stick to you guns and have some integrity. I am not going to try and act like I know what going to happen in this tournament. I will give you 7 thoughts, predictions, stats that you should keep in mind before sending your bracket in. At the end of the post I will include link to a couple of guys who really know the brackets.

7 Thoughts to Ponder

1) The wild, wild west bracket will implode at some point. I just don't know who will lose and when. It is a crap shoot. This region will probably look similar to the west last year, who had a 4 seed play a 7 to get to the final four. Lets look at the top seeds and problems I have with them.

• Gonzaga - One of the weakest ones in recent memory, yet somehow underrated at the same time. 
• Ohio State - They are the smartest pick, but can you continue to rely on offense from Craft, Thompson and Ross? I really don't think so. 
• New Mexico - Strong resume but the analytics don't back it up. They struggle to score as well and Alford has not had the best tournament record.
• Kansas State - Coached by Bruce Webber. Yeah, 
  THIS GUY. Nuff said. 
• Wisconsin - A popular pick for the Elite 8. How quickly we forget Wisco can beat anybody and also lose to ANYBODY (Purdue at home). Their margin for error is really low. In a tournament, that isn't ideal. 
• Arizona- No true point guard. They have size but are really young down low. Can't trust em. 

2) VCU is a really trendy pick at the moment. Great coach, fun team to watch, but very flawed. If the rams can't force turnovers, the become an average defense. In fact, the haven't beaten a team in the top 80 in turnover % all season! Michigan is ranked #1 in the nation in turnover %, while South Dakota State is ranked 13th. Not surprisingly both are lead by fantastic point guards.

3) Louisville should be the favorite, but the fact that everyone is picking them to win it all doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Two weeks ago we were wondering if they had a shot at a 1 seed. They are hot, but apparently the Big East Tournament win put them over the top. Who did they beat exactly? A 7 seed in Notre dame and a 5 seed Syracuse who had lost 4 out of 5 going into the Big East tournament. The Cardinals are more susceptible than you think.

4) St. Louis has the look of a team who is ready to go far. Veteran guard play, big guys who stretch the floor and the emotional backing of Rick Majerus. The latter can't be underestimated after we saw the Colts and Ravens have improbable runs under similar circumstances. I think they can survive the Louisville pressure and will be in position to steal the game from the Cardinals.

5) Things going against the Miami Hurricanes:

• Only one team has ever won a NCAA championship without a McDonald's All American (Maryland '02). Indicating you need NBA talent to win it all.
• Teams not ranked in the top 25 in the pre-season have a historically poor record when given a high seed. Again indicating a lack of overall talent.
• Really old team though, some would say very experienced right? Their entire roster has played a total of 0 games in the NCAA tournament. Not saying they can't do it, just something to think about.

6) Marquette has been put in a tough pod (Butler, Bucknell and Davidson) and are a relatively over seeded 3. They also are trying to overcome having the worst 3 point % in the tournament, 30%.Historically, teams have found it tough when they shoot poorly from 3. Not many have made it to the sweet sixteen. 

7) Florida is the classic Eye test vs. Advanced stats team this year. They have lost 6 close games this year and I would tell you that is more unlucky than anything. They also are top 5 in offensive and defensive efficiency, the only team in the nation that can boast both. Lastly they are in a region with a relatively weak 1 and 2 seed. We know Billy Donovan can coach as well. Smells like a final four run for the Gators.

Actual Experts

Here are some links and a table to guide you through your tournament pool. This Basketball Predictions Blog has fantastic in depth write ups previewing each region. It is a little heavy on the anlaytical side, but really informative. Bracket Science also has any kind of article you could ever want to know about. Who fits the mold of cinderellas and who is most likey to get upset etc. Lastly please use the table below to see who has played well since January 1st (courtesy of @RealGM). Good luck and enjoy the rest of the madness.

Conference Tournament Tables

BIG EAST

BIG TEN

ACC

BIG 12

SEC

PAC 10/12

Conference Tournaments, Fatigue or Momentum?

Many coaches don't particularly like the idea of conference tournaments. After going through a grueling conference schedule you are expected to play up to 4 days in a row before the biggest and most important tournament of the year. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially because you have already played the teams in your conference at least once. Regardless, this week of conference tournaments influences the committee and becomes very important to how we view teams. Tournament births, seeding and regional sites are all at stake up until 2 hours before the bracket is released. 

Obviously the goal is to win every game you are in, but do some coaches take it more seriously than others? Would they prefer their team get rest instead of playing 3 tough games in 3 days? Rick Bozich recently wrote an article on how past NCAA champions and final four contenders have fared in their conference tournaments. He found half of the teams that made it to the final four since 2003 have won their conference tournaments. It got me thinking are these teams riding the momentum wave into March Madness or is just a self-fulfilling prophecy because they are the best teams and thus went farther in both Tournaments. This post will discuss whether we can find any correlation between playing on the last day of your conference tournament and how it improves or hurts your ultimate run to the final 4.

Assumptions

I went and looked back at all of the conference tournament winners and runner ups since 2000 in the big 6 conferences. In total it was 152 teams over a 13 year period, a solid sample size. Then I compared a teams seed to the expected wins a team of that seed normally gets. Essentially I am looking at if a team made it to the last day of their conference tournament, how is their performance compared to the average of a team with a similar seed. Below is a chart of the average wins per tournament seed.

This is actually a really good tool to use when making your brackets in general. As you can see the biggest separation is between the 1 and 2 seeds. A 1 seed on average advances a whole game further than a 2 seed. Other interesting notes are you would rather be a 10 seed than a 9 seed historically. Lastly, the glaring .000 expected wins for the 16 seed because they have never won a game. 

Also lets think about the implication of getting to the finals of your conference tournament. You are in most cases improving your seed. So even if there is no indication of fatigue or momentum, it is advantageous for teams to go as far as possible in their conference tournament (because the better the seed, the more wins you get on average).

Results

Here is a a look at one of the conference tables I set up to give you an idea of how i was looking at the data.

The above table is a list of the winners and runner ups of the Big East Tournament over the past 13 seasons. Next to the teams are their seed in the NCAA tournament, how many wins they had, how many wins that seed normally has and lastly did they over/under perform the expectation. The winners of the Big East have had a great run of late with both the 2012 Louisville and 2011 Uconn advancing to the final four. Overall the Big East winners outperformed the expected wins by 7.75 games, divide that by 13 and you get .6 wins above average per year. This is pretty significant but was skewed by the last two year results. Now if you look over at the runner ups portion, you can see on average they under performed compared to their seed by -.17 games per year. 

I won't bore you with the rest of the conference tables. If you want to take a look at them individually, follow this link. They are set up in the same format. 

After evaluating all 152 teams I found if you won your conference tournament you out performed your seed by an average of .05 games. Also, if you lost your conference tournament you under performed by -.03 games. Thus, there seems to be no fatigue factor at all and also no real momentum gain heading in to the field of 68. As I mentioned above, if there is no significant advantage or disadvantage to advancing to the last day of your teams respective conference tournament, they should try to improve their seed as much as possible. As my idol Johnny Tsunami once said, "Go big or go home". 

More in depth tournament match ups will be posted once the bracket is released tonight. Thanks to the people who actually got this far in the post as well.

Close Games in College Basketball: Not a Story of Wins and Losses

"Parity" is a buzz word in college basketball circles. The most trusted source on the internet, Wikipedia,  defines it as "when participating teams have roughly equivalent levels of talent." It is one of the driving reasons why many love college basketball. Specifically this year, any team can win on any given night. Yet the media and fans seemed obsessed with trying to decide who is "the best team in the nation", "head and shoulders above the rest of the field", "clearly the odds on favorite" etc.  Let me reiterate what everyone has said all season, that doesn't exist this year. It can be most seen by the revolving door of #1 teams we have had at the top of the polls. It astonished me two weeks ago when Indiana beat Michigan State in a really close game, they were anointed the clear favorite to win it all. What happens if IU loses that game? The narrative would be completely different. The Hoosiers would now be in crisis mode; losing 3 out of 5 and people would wondering what happened to the pre-season favorites. But in reality, if IU loses that game, does that make them any better or worse? Or is just our perception towards them that changes?

This post will discuss what close games can ultimately tell us about college basketball teams. Whether past clutch performances can predict future play in tight situations. Lastly, what teams in the NCAA we should trust going into the bracket. 

The Clutch Performance Fallacy 

Lets take a quick look back at that IU game I referenced. The Hoosiers were down 4 with 1:26 left in the game. I would venture to guess teams in that situation lose at least 90% of the time, probably more. Then Christian Watford drew and and-1 off balance push shot from 12 feet away and converted the free throw. That play in and of itself was not lucky, but IU was fortunate to pull out the game. ESPN analysts will rave about Indiana's late game execution, as they should, but thinking this will be a trend would be a mistake. 

Basically the theory boils down to this, in a close game there are only a certain amount of possessions to determine the winner. If a game is tied with 2 minutes left, there is only 6 or so possessions to dictate who the "better" team is. In 6 possessions, anything can happen and it would be foolish to judge who is the better team just based on the winner.

One of college basketball's most respected bloggers, Ken Pomeroy, recently collected a bunch of data on this. He found what I expected, regardless of how good a team is, close games (decided within 3 points) are basically 50-50 on who ends up winning. He even looked at if a team won its first 4 close games and would it predict how many close games they won in the future. It turns out teams who won their first 4 close games won 54% of the rest of their close games, while teams that lost their first four won 46% of their remaining close games.

It might shock people to hear this, but most coaches would prefer to not be in close games for this very reason. To quote coach Jack Reilly from Mighty Ducks 1, "it’s not worth winning if you can’t win big". Billy Donovan's Florida Gators have provided us with a perfect example of a team that is being criticized by the media for not being "battle tested". Florida has blown out SEC teams by an average of around 15 points a game. So the media would prefer that Florida play close games against sub par SEC competition and believe that somehow prepares them for March? 1) average margin of victory is one of the best indicators for how good a team is. 2) Lets say Forida ends up playing more close games, but inevitably loses some of them. Then Florida gets reamed for losing to a crappy SEC team. It is a no win situation for Donovan. So while it is nice to see your favorite team execute and win in the close games, please don't fall into the trap of thinking that will be the norm.

Consistency is King

So now that we are well into March, which teams should you trust heading into the tournament. Below is a table, courtesy of @RealGM, that tells us how many bad performances a team has had as of 2/26/2013. A "bad performance" is any game where the team’s game-specific Pythagorean Rating would be less than 0.9000. (Pythagorean Rating adjusts for opponent and venue as on kenpom.com.) In my opinion this is probably one of the best ways to see who is the cream of the crop in the NCAA and definitely a better indication than wins and losses.

Some things that jump out right away, again would be Florida. The Gators had 5 bad showings as off 2/26 and have played 5 total close games if you count yesterday's game against Kentucky. They actually have lost 4 of the 5 close games and will be penalized accordingly in next weeks rankings. We will probably see Florida as a 3 seed come March, but I would be buying their stock right now. This is one of the top 5 teams in the nation. 

Teams near the bottom of the table but top of the polls: Michigan State, Kansas and Miami. Most of the Spartans bad performances came in the non conference. As of Big Ten play they have been much better, so I wouldn't worry too much about them. Kansas and Miami on the other hand are teams to be wary of. Kansas has had some clunkers, TCU comes to mind and last night against Baylor was not pretty. Bill Self is top 3 in game coach right now so I would hate to doubt the Jayhawks, but their ranking could be somewhat inflated come tournament time. 

Then there is Miami. This is a team I want to love so bad. A cast of seniors from Kenny Kadji (who is older than Kevin Durant), to Reggie Johnson and Durand Scott who are led by coach Larranaga and sophmore point guard Shane Larkin. They are the media darling. Coming out of nowhere and looking like they could run the table in the Durham dominated ACC. Most of their bad performances came in February against ACC schools that aren't exactly power houses. Now they have lost two more in March and were tied going into half time last night at home against Clemson. I think this team is good and well coached, but I'm on the fence if they are a team I can trust.

If there is one takeaway from this post it is that close games can be decided by improbability  That is exactly why we love March Madness. The double digit seed upsets, teenagers being put in pressure situations that we over examine and everyone thinking they can predict what is going to happen. There is no favorite and that is exactly how I like it. Good luck in your tournament pools and I will have more about tournament match-ups as the end of March is on the horizon. 

Bonus Video 

Random video that popped up on my timeline the other day. Team is up 1 with 3.7 seconds left. All they have to do is hold onto the ball or get fouled. In bounding from the back court and a player loses focus for a split second. To quote the camera guy, "He stupid". The kid scored a buzzer beater for the opposing team. This isn't exactly what I had in mind when saying close games are impossible to predict. It's truly unbelievable.  

Big Ten Power Rankings Part 2

Now what you all have been waiting for, the second part of the Big Ten Power rankings. Each team will be paired with a song that can describe their current state of being. Again we will work our way down to #1. And yes these songs are a good reflection of my music taste. It is also encouraged to play each song in the background as you read. Really adds to the flavor of the post and the songs themselves are classics.

6. Ohio State: "Reflection", Mulan (Christina Aguilera)

No I am not saying that Aaron Craft could secretly be a girl, despite his rosy cheeks (wait maybe this song fits better than I thought). Regardless this song describes a plea from Mulan to find her true self. I feel Ohio State fans were wondering the same thing about their roster without Sully and William Buford this season. We have seen the results and I think its proving that this team could be flawed. The contributing members from last years team (Smith/Thomas/Craft) are good, but not good enough to make up for there non-existent bench.

Lenzelle Smith was the perfect 5th man as a freshman. Very solid, few mistakes and never looked like the moment overwhelmed him. He actually has improved this season as well. Shooting above 40% from three and averaging in double figures. Unfortunately he can't be relied on to create opportunities for others and that is desperately what this team needs. Enter Deshaun Thomas. He has always been able to fill it up. He seems to be playing "Hot B-Bomb" from the original Mario Party the way he launches shots up alarmingly fast after catching the ball. Very similar to Melo, in that he needs to score for his team to win, but they have to make up for him on other areas. Can he be the #1 guy on a national champion? I think so, but with this team it is yet to be determined. Then there is Aaron Craft, a guy touted for his on ball defense and tenacity. This facet of his game was shown off in the win at home against Michigan. He bothered Trey Burke and took him out of his game in the first half. It is at the other end of the court where he really need to take the next step. Offensively this year he is shooting 38% from the field Yup, that pretty much sums it up. Their reflection has shown a team who will continue to be competitive and win many games in the Big Ten, but does not have the same feel as last years team.

5. Minnesota: "Still Dre", Dr. Dre


I'm happy for Tubby Smith. There were murmurs that he might be on the hot seat as recently as last year. He has had some unfortunate luck in his tenure at Minnesota. Royce White quitting the team via YouTube (shocking, i know), the fall out and transfer of Devoe Joseph and injuries of Trevor Mbakwe. Now he finally has a team with talent and the results have followed.  

The lineups were a bit experimental at the beginning of the year with Eliason starting, but Tubby quickly moved Rodney Williams back to the 4 where he is most effective and starting Mbakwe at center. The team rebounds really well and can D up anyone in the Big Ten. Their perimeter is very big and the size will bother most opposing backourts. The Gopher's flaw seems to be the lack of a true PG. Thus most of the onus falls on Andre Hollins to provide offensive creativity. The back of his jersey reads "Dre Hollins", which is pretty sick and his play is backing that swag up. 14.5 ppg and shooting over 42% from three with a high usage rate is impressive. This team has lost two straight but @IU and Michigan are nothing to be ashamed of. Expect them to be battling for a top 4 place and subsequent bye in the B1G tourney.  

4. Wisconsin: "Gives You Hell ", All American Rejects

At this point "Death, taxes and Bo Ryan" is a cliche that is overused, but there is a reason for that. Bo gets his team ready to play more than anyone else in the star studded coaches of the Big Ten conference. Consider this, he has the best win % in Big Ten history, even above RMK. He also has finished fourth or above the last 11 years. Amazing results for a guy who just got his first McDonald's All American this year. Bo's coaching style is widely accepted as boring and slow, but he wins. I even considered picking the song "All I do is Win" and it really would have fit Ryan’s dance moves, but I ended up picking "Gives you Hell". This Grantland Piece highlights how Ryan might be ruining the game, but more importantly frustrates opponents by always dictating the pace. He also oddly resembles the Grinch, which almost makes him the devil right?

Wisconsin lost Jordan Taylor to graduation Ryan Gasser (edit) to injury making their backcourt incredibly thin. Ryan has found a way once again though to stay successful. No one player jumps off the box score for Wisconsin, but everybody contributes. I have been most impressed with Sam Dekker of late. He has embraced his sixth man role and had scored in double digits three straight games before last night. Ultimately it is hard to say how far this team will go in March, but Bo will have them in the tournament. No one will want to play Wisconsin come tourney time because you will have to face the cruel and unusual punishment of Bo's swing offense.

(NOTE: They were ranked above Indiana until last nights loss)

3. Indiana: "You Drive Me Crazy  ", Britney Spears

The Hoosiers have been toying with my heart all season and continue to keep me up at night. I wonder why/how a team can look so good in first halves against UNC and Minnesota, and look so stagnant against Iowa, NW and even Penn State at times. IU fans will cite, "well it's tough to win on the road in the Big Ten". First of all Big Ten teams went 7-3 on the this last week. Then add the fact that there was more red in the stands against NW than purple and that no one goes to Penn State games and we are running out of excuses. Also when you're complaining that your team is ranked too low at #8 and then scream its tough to win at Northwestern or Iowa, it's a little hypocritical. A top 5 ranking comes with a certain level of expectation.

I had cited in an earlier post that this Hoosiers team would only go as far as their defense. They have answered that bell so far IMO. 15th overall in defensive efficiency according to KenPom and their rotations continue to improve. We all know the Hoosiers love to run, but they haven't always been able to dictate pace and have looked dreadful in the half court. I believe the problem lies with role distribution and preparation. Lets take a quick look back at the Wisco game. One minute left, IU is down 5 with the ball. They can make it a 1 possession game. Yogi dribbles aimlessly around, hands off to hulls. Jordy has no space, stops his dribble and throws it to Christian Watford in the post. He forces a post up and throws himself into Bruesewitz trying to draw a foul and it hits the side if the backboard. Wisco boards, IU loses. Thoughts on that possession:

     1. That's the best shot they can get with a game on the line!

     2. Tom, please call a play for your best player. Cody at least needs to touch the ball

When IU gets into a half court game, they need to define roles better. Jordy needs to be spotting up coming off screens with some freedom. He can't be expected to create too much. Also more Vic on the ball. He has the athletic ability to go by those most Big Ten defenders. The possessions where Cody and Victor don't touch the ball is inexcusable. There also has to be an alternative to just "lets speed up the game". I don't see the bench production being a huge problem, you only really need 8 guys to play big minutes and I have faith that Will and Remy will find their groove soon. IU can be a top 5 team, they just need to show more consistency.

2. Michigan State: "Ain’t No Mountain High Enough", Marvin Gaye

How many times can I short a Tom Izzo team at the beginning of the season and then watch them constantly improve in Big Ten season while getting ready for March. This was Draymond Green's team last year. Day Day's usage rate was off the charts for a player who wasn't a guard. Clearly there was going to be an adjustment period. At the beginning of the season Izzo was starting both Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne together at the 5 and 4 respectively. He soon found out that did not work very well. For one, their combined basketball IQ might add up to Vince Young's wonderlic score. Also this team does not shoot well from the outside to begin with, so Appling and Dawson need lanes to drive through. The spacing was hampered by the two big boys inside. Once Izzo slid Dawson to the 4 everything started to fall in place. Recently Izzo has gone back to starting thw twin towers. Apparently Travis Trice and Valentine were just not cutting it.

Izzo is proving again that no roster obstacle can get in his way of molding a Final Four team. While I remain skeptical of this teams offensive prowess, their perimeter defense is outstanding. With plus defenders such as Appling, Gary Harris and Dawson, they can suffocate opposing offenses. Dawson is an absolute beast of the boards as well. He is top 5 in the league with a 17.2% defensive rebounding percentage. He also is starting to look smoother in transition and his athleticism will never be questioned. Gary Harris has been a little up and down for my liking, but his mental toughness has stood out. Never a moment too big for this Indiana native, coupled with a shooter's mentality. Kieth Appling is this key to this team. He can create shots for other's and himself. A new wrinkle to Appling's game has been his in between game. He now takes 41% of his shots as 2 point jumpers compared to 27% last year. Most modern day coaches wouldn't condone taking more mid range jumpers, but considering he is shooting 29% at the rim, its a good thing. A nice win at the Kohl center last night versus Wisconsin and it looks like Izzo will have his troops ready to battle for the title again.

1. Michigan: "Country Roads", John Denver

Michigan has proven to be the only top tier team in the Big Ten in my infallible opinion. John Beilein has to be thrilled with what he has seen on court from his Wolverines. Beilein has been one of my favorite coaches to follow since his 04-05 West Virginia team that reached the elite 8. His son, Patrick, bombing threes; Johannes Herber doing the dirty work; Kevin Pittsnoggle representing for trailer trash everywhere; and Mike Gansey making athletic white guy plays. They were really fun to watch. I was terrified when I heard he was going to Michigan. I couldn't really root for him anymore and especially when his team is this good. You can really see what Beilein can do with elite talent now.

Players 1-6 on this team are all so solid and contribute in many different roles. Mitch McGary and Jordan Morgan do the dirty work on the boards and continue to play big. Tim Hardaway has been more in control this season. I was surprised to see he was not taking it to the hole more than last year, but his shooting %'s overall are very improved. He really could be the x-factor for this Michigan Squad. Also Glen Robinson III has provided much needed size at the power forward spot (lets not forget that Zach Novak played there last year). Robinson has also not tried to do too much this year while shooting 39% from three which is crucial to space the floor in Beilein's system.

My personal favorites on this team are Nick Staukus and Trey Burke. Stauskas can most apply described as a Canadian baller. He has come in with surprising athleticism, good handles and a serious amount of confidence. His confidence can mostly be seen in his shooting. To give you a good idea of his shooting expertise let me describe a drill for you: 5 minutes, one ball, one shooter, one rebounder. You shoot as many threes as you can and can't shoot from the same spot twice in a row. I have done this drill many times and let me tell you it is more tiring than you would think. The first time Stauskas stepped onto a Michigan practice court he shredded the school record shooting 78/91 in a 5 minute span. That's 85% and shooting every 3.3 seconds for those of you counting at home. To give out a benchmark my brother and I top out at around 45 and get up 75ish shots (Jordy hulls has made 80 + before). Anyways that's unreal. More importantly he is shooting 49% from three so far this year and I don't see it going down too much.

Trey Burke is what makes this team go, I had the theory that Burke would not get much better this year (similar to a cody zeller like sophmore year). I was completely wrong. He's averaging 20 points a game and 7.2 assists per game(4.6 last year). He also cut his tunover % in half while keeping the same ridiculously high usage rate. He only plays at a pace that he is comfortable in, has added a mid range J and gets his teammates involved. At this point he is the NCAA version of Chris Paul.

Michigan will probably be in the top 5 all year and have a chance at a national title. They move the ball so well on offense that even I have fun watching. I'll get to see them in person when they visit Assembly Hall in about a week. John Beilein really just needs to follow those country roads home back to West Virginia so I can root for his teams again.

B1G Power Ranknigs

We are about half way through the college basketball season and well into Big Ten play. The conference is starting to take shape. The top half of the Big Ten is the most competitive in all the nation, while the bottom half will definitely steal some games at home and even on the road. I'll attempt to rank the teams in America's best conference and relate each to a song that describes their current state of being. Some of the songs will be a stretch, but that's part of the fun. We'll start at the bottom and work our way to #7. In a separate post later this week I will rank the top 6.

12. PENN STATE: "Fun, Fun, Fun", Beach Boys

This song is both sarcastic and spot on for the Penn State Nittany Lions. The sarcasm points to the song title because Penn State really doesn't look like they are enjoying themselves this season. Their really isn't any hope for Pat Chambers team. Once Tim Frazier went out with a season long injury, their competitiveness from game to game dropped to the bottom of the league. The injury bug took coach Chamber's T-bird away and now he's just trying to keep his job. Two of the losses that are the most disconcerting are Northwestern and Nebraska at home. These two teams might be in the least talented tier with Penn State, but found ways to win at the Bryce Jordan Center. That's right, i'm saying its unlikely they don't win a game in the B1G this year.

11. NEBRASKA: "Go Cubs Go", Drunk Irrational Cubs Fans 

Not gonna lie, I don't know a lot about this team. I have seen them play competitive games at Wisconsin and Michigan State. Both ended in losses, but you could see that this team might get a couple of more wins besides the times they play Penn State. They also have a center by the name of Andre Almeida. He seems to be a combination of the big Kid, Mikey, from Recess and Josh from the Nickelodeon show Drake and Josh. Also their coach has this creepy vibe about him. Can't really put a finger on why, but listen to this interview and he almost comes off pedophile-ish. Oh yeah, the song choice. Well once again this team doesn't have a ton of hope for the rest of the season, reminding me of be beloved cubbies. So I encourage the students to enjoy the games, but not before a good pregame. Then you can sing your teams fight song if they win and simultaneously trick yourself into thinking you have a chance to win more games this season (similar to the cubs).

10. Illinois: "Hot N Cold", Katy Perry

Before Illinois fans get all bent up about being ranked 10th in the conference, let me remind them the Illini lost by 14 to Northwestern at home. Yea, let that one sink in for a second. You have also lost to the team that is two in front of you. This Katy Perry classic defines the play of the Illini to a tee. Living and dying by the three is something Illinois does every game. Brandon Paul must be a big fan of the song as well. He is fun to watch when he is on and extremely anemic when he's off.

Two bright spots for the Illini are the play of their Sophomore class and John Groce. Both Nnanna Egwu and Tracy Abrams have really improved. Abrams plays at just the right pace. Not too fast, while still probing the defense for vulnerabilities. Egwu has impressed me with his rim protecting and the occasional outside J. I'm not saying Groce should run the offense through Nnanna, but quality shots inside the three point line would be a change of pace for this team. Groce has also been somewhat of a revelation. He came up under Thad Matta and you can see the similarities in their tactics. Thad has molded Ohio State into one of the toughest teams to inbound the ball against in the country. That sounds like a weak claim to fame, but when the opposing coach wastes a time out early in the first half it can be a valuable strategy. Groce invokes a flat 1-3-1 when opposing teams are taking the ball out on the sideline. He puts Egwu on the ball and it makes the plays other teams run irrelevant. I love the strategy here and so do teams in the NBA. Recently Tom Thibodeau has tried this in late game situations as well. I'm not sure if Groce was the innovator, but regardless I like the way he thinks and coaches.

9. Northwestern: "Centerfield", John Fogerty

Chicago's Big Ten team! RAWR! Seriously, no one actually believes that right? Regardless I find myself rooting for the cats to make the tourney every year and they continually come up short. NW has been injury ridden this year. Hence the lyrics "Put me in coach, I'm ready to play, today." Carmody is trying his best to win with a team devoid of talent. Reggie Hearn has stepped up as the teams best player. Also Benet Acadmey's finest, Dave Sobolewski, has been very reliable this season and averaging over 10 points a game while logging Luol Deng like minutes for the second straight year.

It doesn't look like the Cats will make the tourney this year, but they can always rely on their fans unwavering support. Whether it be expressed with their smooth dancing, limited attention span and passionate cheering. These might not be the best representation of Northwestern fans, but at least I didn't show a picture of the cheerleaders.

8. Purdue: "You Got It Bad", Usher

Let me start off by saying I think Matt Painter is a fantastic coach. That's all the good I can really say about this years boilermakers. The talent is minimal. I like Ronnie Johnson's game, AJ Hammons can play a little bit and DJ Byrd can stroke it from time to time. All these players also have something else in common, they are being asked to do to much. The freshman will eventually grow into bigger roles, while Byrd is a good complimentary guy, but they aren't able to help enough to win consistently. Also I'm not the biggest fan of Terrone Johnson and unfortunately he is their best player.

None of these guys can sing "You Got it Bad" like Indiana's Victor Oladipo, so what gives? The song refers to what I think Matt Painter does every night, "When you're on the phone, hang up and you call right back". Once upon a time Painter had the opportunity to fill the Missouri job after Mike Richardson left to go to Arkansas. Painter decided to turn down the job to see his time out with Robbie Hummel. Hindsight 20/20, I believe Painter might have made a mistake and thinks about it all the time as Usher suggests. Indiana, as a basketball state, has a ton of talent. Unfortunately besides the Hummel, Jajuan Johnson and Etwaun Moore class, Painter has had trouble gathering the elite in-state prospects. Then factor in the surrounding coaches (Crean, Matta, Stevens and Belien) and Painter finds himself in a tough situation. Though Frank Haith got slapped with some NCAA violations earlier this week so maybe there is a chance the current Purdue coach ends up at Mizzou after all.

7. Iowa: "When You’re Mad", Ne-Yo

The Hawkeyes seem to be the best bottom half team in the league. They beat Wisconsin at home for the second straight year and 3rd time in a row (Tom Crean double takes). They also won at Northwestern which isn't a resume builder, but beating a team you supposed to on the road is a good sign for a young team. Roy Devyn Marble is Iowa's leading scorer, but I love to watch Aaron White. Kid plays the game the right way and is very efficient. The flaw in this Iowa team could be they love to push the pace, but start two freshman guards. Not to say that can't work, though it could be a tough strategy to win with on the road. The song choice is "Stomp the Yard" star turned singer, Ne-yo's "When You're Mad". I think Fran McCafrey might need to listen to this soothing song from time to time. He gets a little out on control, even channeling his inner Bobby Knight during a game last year. I think Iowa can steal some road games this year and have a shot to make the big dance.


The second installment finishing the top half of the Big 10 should be out tomorrow. It will include more depth and stats than this version. Follow me on twitter @Sports_by_Skut